4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
LA Away

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2022-11-20 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

LA
43.6%
NO
56.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Andy Dalton (NO): -0.023 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

LA 22
–
NO 24
Projected margin: NO by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

LA

Brian Allen C Out Thumb
Travin Howard LB Out Hip
A'Shawn Robinson DT Questionable Illness
John Wolford QB Questionable Neck

NO

Marcus Davenport DE Out Calf
J.T. Gray S Out Hamstring
James Hurst T Out Concussion
Mark Ingram RB Out Knee
Cameron Jordan DE Out Eye
Marshon Lattimore CB Out Abdomen
Pete Werner LB Out Ankle
Andrus Peat G Questionable Triceps

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 20
–
NO 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:19 FG NO (4:19) 3-W.Lutz 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. LA 0 – NO 3
  • Q1 04:08 TD LA (4:08) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 15-T.Atwell for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 46, YAC 16 LA 6 – NO 3
  • Q2 12:16 TD NO (12:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 8, YAC 0 LA 7 – NO 9
  • Q2 00:22 TD LA (:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 1-Al.Robinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 0 LA 13 – NO 10
  • Q3 10:27 TD NO (10:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 5-J.Landry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 7, YAC 0 LA 14 – NO 16
  • Q3 05:55 TD NO (5:55) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Donald]. Pass 40, YAC 13 LA 14 – NO 23
  • Q4 14:51 FG LA (14:51) 8-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 17 – NO 24
  • Q4 09:09 FG NO (9:09) 3-W.Lutz 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. LA 17 – NO 27
  • Q4 00:11 FG LA (:11) 8-M.Gay 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LA 20 – NO 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:04) 11-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to NO 11, Center-42-M.Orzech. 89-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 23 for 12 yards (37-Q.Lake).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:08) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to LA 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:58) 11-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to NO 30, Center-42-M.Orzech. 89-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 41 for 11 yards (87-J.Harris).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:19) 4-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to LA 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-A.Dowell.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:19) 11-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to NO 46, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on LA-87-J.Harris, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NO 46.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:44) 3-C.Akers left end to NO 42 for 13 yards (32-T.Mathieu).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 73%

    (5:29) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to NO 35 for -1 yards (98-P.Turner, 56-D.Davis). NO-98-P.Turner was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful. LA-68-T.Nsekhe was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. INJURY UPDATE - LA 94-A.Robinson, knee, QUESTIONABLE to return.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (3:20) 4-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to LA 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:50) 11-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to NO 42, Center-42-M.Orzech. 89-R.Shaheed to LA 42 for 16 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 58-J.Hollins). PENALTY on NO-30-J.Evans, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 42.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (14:51) 8-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (9:09) 3-W.Lutz 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 13 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 37%

    (6:22) 11-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to NO 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (3:50) 4-B.Gillikin punts 51 yards to LA 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-B.Powell to LA 27 for -5 yards. Lateral to 5-J.Ramsey to NO 40 for 33 yards (53-Z.Baun). PENALTY on LA-43-J.Gervase, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 32.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 37%

    (1:34) 4-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-B.Powell to LA 26 for 14 yards (55-K.Elliss).