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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to LA 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.93 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 26, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP