Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 82

Los Angeles Rams 14 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 11-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to NO 42, Center-42-M.Orzech. 89-R.Shaheed to LA 42 for 16 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 58-J.Hollins). PENALTY on NO-30-J.Evans, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 42.

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model