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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 83

New Orleans Saints 27 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 4-B.Gillikin punts 51 yards to LA 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-B.Powell to LA 27 for -5 yards. Lateral to 5-J.Ramsey to NO 40 for 33 yards (53-Z.Baun). PENALTY on LA-43-J.Gervase, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 32.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.63 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 83, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 41, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP