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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 3 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 4-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to LA 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-A.Dowell.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.94 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model