Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 88

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to LV 45, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-K.Cole to LV 47 for 2 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell, 6-P.Locke). LV-34-B.Bolden was injured during the play. Penalty on LV-34-B.Bolden, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.18 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 88, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model