4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
LV Away

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Nathaniel Hackett
Sunday 2022-11-20 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌨 Snow Spread 2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

LV
50.0%
DEN
50.0%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (DEN): -0.030 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

LV 21
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

LV

Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Ribs
Davante Adams WR Questionable Abdomen
Luke Masterson LB Questionable Ribs
Kolton Miller T Questionable Shoulder

DEN

Andrew Beck TE Out Hamstring
Jonas Griffith LB Out Ankle
K.J. Hamler WR Out Hamstring
Jerry Jeudy WR Out Ankle
K'Waun Williams CB Out Wrist
Baron Browning LB Questionable Hip
Tom Compton T Questionable Back
Cameron Fleming T Questionable Quadricep
Graham Glasgow G Questionable Shoulder
Kendall Hinton WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 22
–
DEN 16

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:25 TD DEN (6:25) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 09:24 FG DEN (9:24) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. LV 0 – DEN 10
  • Q2 05:44 TD LV (5:44) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-93-D.Jones, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LV 6 – DEN 10
  • Q3 10:39 FG LV (10:39) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – DEN 10
  • Q4 15:00 FG DEN (15:00) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. LV 10 – DEN 13
  • Q4 07:11 FG LV (7:11) 2-D.Carlson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 13 – DEN 13
  • Q4 03:34 FG DEN (3:34) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. LV 13 – DEN 16
  • Q4 00:19 FG LV (:19) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 16 – DEN 16
  • Q5 08:31 TD LV (8:31) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 22 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 16 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 57%

    (9:58) 6-A.Cole punts 30 yards to DEN 8, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 11 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 80%

    (12:31) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 76%

    (9:24) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (:02) 8-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-M.Crosby), Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:04) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to LV 45, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-K.Cole to LV 47 for 2 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell, 6-P.Locke). LV-34-B.Bolden was injured during the play. Penalty on LV-34-B.Bolden, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 69%

    (10:39) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:53) 17-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to LV 21, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-K.Cole to LV 33 for 12 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 20 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (4:47) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-M.Washington to DEN 28 for 18 yards (80-J.Horsted). FUMBLES (80-J.Horsted), ball out of bounds at DEN 33.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 14 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 67%

    (15:00) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:05) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-M.Washington to DEN 24 for 9 yards (58-D.Butler; 59-L.Masterson).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 16 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:12) 17-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to LV 28, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-K.Cole pushed ob at LV 35 for 7 yards (40-J.Strnad).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 54%

    (7:11) 2-D.Carlson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 76%

    (3:34) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:12) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:53) 17-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to LV 15, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-K.Cole to LV 22 for 7 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell; 49-A.Singleton).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (:19) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.