Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 60

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(7:53) 17-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to LV 21, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-K.Cole to LV 33 for 12 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.70 EP
61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model