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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 34

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.53 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model