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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-M.Washington to DEN 24 for 9 yards (58-D.Butler; 59-L.Masterson).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model