4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 30

Denver Broncos 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.81 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model