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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model