4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 66

Denver Broncos 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 17-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to LV 15, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-K.Cole to LV 22 for 7 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell; 49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.54 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model