Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:42) 14-A.Lee punts 45 yards to SF 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 3-R.McCloud to SF 37 for 7 yards (57-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.31 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model