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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Monday 2022-11-21 · 20:15 Azteca Stadium, Mexico City MX 🌧 Rain Spread -10.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

SF
61.2%
ARI
38.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • SF offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Colt McCoy (ARI) +0.122 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.160 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
ARI 20
Projected margin: SF by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

SF

Arik Armstead DT Out Foot
Samson Ebukam DE Questionable Quadricep

ARI

Zach Ertz TE Out Knee
D.J. Humphries T Out Back
Byron Murphy CB Out Back
Max Garcia G Questionable Shoulder
DeAndre Hopkins WR Questionable Hamstring
Kyler Murray QB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 38
–
ARI 10

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:03 FG ARI (8:03) 5-M.Prater 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. SF 0 – ARI 3
  • Q2 13:40 TD SF (13:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – ARI 3
  • Q2 08:51 TD SF (8:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – ARI 3
  • Q2 04:24 TD ARI (4:24) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 14 – ARI 9
  • Q2 00:47 FG SF (:47) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 17 – ARI 10
  • Q3 10:44 TD SF (10:44) 19-D.Samuel left end for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – ARI 10
  • Q3 00:33 TD SF (:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 30 – ARI 10
  • Q4 10:17 TD SF (10:17) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 37 – ARI 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:42) 14-A.Lee punts 45 yards to SF 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 3-R.McCloud to SF 37 for 7 yards (57-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:50) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 90%

    (8:03) 5-M.Prater 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:58) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to ARI 4, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (2:49) 14-A.Lee punts 59 yards to SF 18, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 91%

    (:47) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 55%

    (7:55) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass incomplete short right to 83-G.Dortch.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:33) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to ARI 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-26-S.Womack.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:36) 14-A.Lee punts 41 yards to SF 47, Center-46-A.Brewer. 3-R.McCloud to ARI 47 for 6 yards (47-E.Turner).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 32%

    (13:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass incomplete short middle to 18-A.Green (57-D.Greenlaw).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 39%

    (8:04) 14-A.Lee punts 36 yards to SF 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (5:48) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to ARI 29, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at SF 33 for 38 yards (18-M.Wishnowsky). PENALTY on ARI-23-C.Clement, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 44.