Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 61

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(12:50) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.42 EP
62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model