Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 61

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(6:33) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to ARI 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-26-S.Womack.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.76 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model