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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 31

What Actually Happened

(13:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass incomplete short middle to 18-A.Green (57-D.Greenlaw).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.91 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model