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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 47

Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 38

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 14-A.Lee punts 36 yards to SF 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.85 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model