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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 80

San Francisco 49ers 38 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to ARI 29, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at SF 33 for 38 yards (18-M.Wishnowsky). PENALTY on ARI-23-C.Clement, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 44.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.68 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP