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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 4

Tennessee Titans 7 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry up the middle to GB 6 for -2 yards (7-Q.Walker, 91-P.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +3.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.88 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model