Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- TEN offense: -0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- Aaron Rodgers (GB): -0.035 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- GB offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 11
TEN
GB
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:36 TD TEN (10:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 40-D.Hilliard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – GB 0
- Q1 00:05 TD GB (:05) (No Huddle) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 9-C.Watson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. TEN 7 – GB 6
- Q2 00:36 TD TEN (:36) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – GB 6
- Q3 08:29 FG GB (8:29) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. TEN 14 – GB 9
- Q3 05:21 TD TEN (5:21) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – GB 9
- Q3 02:09 TD GB (2:09) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 9-C.Watson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – GB 15
- Q4 15:00 TD TEN (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 81-A.Hooper for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 26 – GB 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(9:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to TEN 36, Center-56-J.Coco. 80-C.Board to TEN 39 for 3 yards (20-R.Ford).
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Q1 TEN 4th & 13 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(7:10) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 47 yards to GB 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-R.Cobb to GB 22 for 5 yards (42-J.Jones).
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Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 26%
(12:05) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry up the middle to GB 49 for 1 yard (31-A.Amos; 51-K.Barnes).
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Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%
(4:59) 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry up the middle to GB 6 for -2 yards (7-Q.Walker, 91-P.Smith).
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Q2 GB 4th & 15 at the 99Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(3:29) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to GB 41, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-20-R.Ford.
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Q3 GB 4th & 11 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%
(8:29) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(13:55) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to TEN 28, Center-56-J.Coco. 80-C.Board to TEN 37 for 9 yards (7-Q.Walker).
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Q4 GB 4th & 12 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(9:23) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to TEN 13, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-20-R.Ford.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EPp(convert) 72%
(7:14) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to GB 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-K.Nixon ran ob at TEN 44 for 24 yards (4-R.Stonehouse).
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Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 59%
(5:26) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 13-A.Lazard.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(5:05) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 59 yards to GB 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 19 for 13 yards (40-D.Hilliard; 53-D.Cole).
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Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 44 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 40%
(2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to TEN 44 for no gain (51-D.Long).