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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 17 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to TEN 13, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-20-R.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model