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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 27 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to GB 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-K.Nixon ran ob at TEN 44 for 24 yards (4-R.Stonehouse).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.18 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP