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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 17 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to TEN 44 for no gain (51-D.Long).

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.80 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model