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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 84

Green Bay Packers 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to TEN 36, Center-56-J.Coco. 80-C.Board to TEN 39 for 3 yards (20-R.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 84, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model