Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

(7:10) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 47 yards to GB 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-R.Cobb to GB 22 for 5 yards (42-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.44 EP
70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model