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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 7 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:05) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry up the middle to GB 49 for 1 yard (31-A.Amos; 51-K.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.60 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.81 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model