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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 6

Washington Commanders 17 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(:10) 6-J.Slye 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.01 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 6, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model