Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- WAS offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- HOU defense: +0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- HOU offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- WAS defense: -0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- QB edge to WAS: Davis Mills (HOU) -0.084 vs Taylor Heinicke (WAS) -0.089 EPA/dropback
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 11
WAS
HOU
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:24 TD WAS (13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at HOU 37. 29-K.Fuller for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – HOU 0
- Q2 11:49 TD WAS (11:49) 10-C.Samuel left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – HOU 0
- Q2 04:55 FG WAS (4:55) 6-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on HOU, Illegal Formation, declined. WAS 17 – HOU 0
- Q2 00:10 FG WAS (:10) 6-J.Slye 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 20 – HOU 0
- Q3 09:56 FG HOU (9:56) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. WAS 20 – HOU 3
- Q4 12:12 FG WAS (12:12) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 23 – HOU 3
- Q4 03:25 TD HOU (3:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 23 – HOU 9
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 9 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(14:04) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to HOU 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 25-D.King to HOU 32 for 9 yards (34-C.Holmes; 54-C.Cheeseman).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 HOU 4th & 14 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(11:46) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to WAS 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-D.Milne to WAS 42 for 6 yards (46-J.Weeks).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(10:12) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to HOU 25, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EPp(convert) 70%
(8:36) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to WAS 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-D.Milne to WAS 18 for no gain (22-W.Redmond).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 44%
(5:01) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 HOU 4th & 17 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(2:05) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to WAS 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-D.Milne to WAS 34 for 9 yards (34-T.Hairston). PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 25.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%
(4:55) 6-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on HOU, Illegal Formation, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(3:07) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to WAS 33, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 15-D.Milne. Penalty on WAS-47-K.Hudson, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(:10) 6-J.Slye 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 15Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 95%
(12:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles right end to WAS 11 for 4 yards (94-D.Payne).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 HOU 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%
(9:56) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(6:33) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to HOU 6, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 25-D.King.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 25Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 87%
(15:00) 8-B.Robinson left end to HOU 22 for 3 yards (58-C.Kirksey).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 WAS 4th & 14 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 86%
(12:12) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 67Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60%
(10:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 13-B.Cooks ran ob at WAS 48 for 19 yards (20-B.McCain) [93-J.Allen].
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Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(7:50) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to HOU 40, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 25-D.King to HOU 45 for 5 yards (39-J.Reaves).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 85%
(5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 88-J.Akins to WAS 19 for 8 yards (31-K.Curl).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 13 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%
(4:29) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks to WAS 3 for 10 yards (29-K.Fuller). WAS-96-J.Smith-Williams was injured during the play.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 7 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.07 EPp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(:27) 24-A.Gibson left guard to HOU 4 for 3 yards (25-D.King; 36-J.Owens).
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