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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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Houston Texans

HC Lovie Smith
Sunday 2022-11-20 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

WAS
47.7%
HOU
52.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to WAS: Davis Mills (HOU) -0.084 vs Taylor Heinicke (WAS) -0.089 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
HOU 22
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

WAS

Cole Holcomb LB Out Foot
J.D. McKissic RB Out Neck
Armani Rogers TE Out Knee
Christian Holmes CB Questionable Hamstring
David Mayo LB Questionable Hamstring
Jonathan Williams RB Questionable Knee

HOU

Derek Stingley CB Out Hamstring
Neville Hewitt LB Out Hamstring
Rasheem Green DE Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 23
–
HOU 10

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:24 TD WAS (13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at HOU 37. 29-K.Fuller for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 11:49 TD WAS (11:49) 10-C.Samuel left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – HOU 0
  • Q2 04:55 FG WAS (4:55) 6-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on HOU, Illegal Formation, declined. WAS 17 – HOU 0
  • Q2 00:10 FG WAS (:10) 6-J.Slye 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 20 – HOU 0
  • Q3 09:56 FG HOU (9:56) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. WAS 20 – HOU 3
  • Q4 12:12 FG WAS (12:12) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 23 – HOU 3
  • Q4 03:25 TD HOU (3:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 23 – HOU 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 9 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:04) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to HOU 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 25-D.King to HOU 32 for 9 yards (34-C.Holmes; 54-C.Cheeseman).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:46) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to WAS 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-D.Milne to WAS 42 for 6 yards (46-J.Weeks).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:12) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to HOU 25, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (8:36) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to WAS 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-D.Milne to WAS 18 for no gain (22-W.Redmond).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 44%

    (5:01) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 17 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:05) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to WAS 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-D.Milne to WAS 34 for 9 yards (34-T.Hairston). PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 25.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (4:55) 6-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on HOU, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:07) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to WAS 33, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 15-D.Milne. Penalty on WAS-47-K.Hudson, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (:10) 6-J.Slye 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 95%

    (12:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles right end to WAS 11 for 4 yards (94-D.Payne).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (9:56) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:33) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to HOU 6, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 87%

    (15:00) 8-B.Robinson left end to HOU 22 for 3 yards (58-C.Kirksey).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 14 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 86%

    (12:12) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (10:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 13-B.Cooks ran ob at WAS 48 for 19 yards (20-B.McCain) [93-J.Allen].

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:50) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to HOU 40, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 25-D.King to HOU 45 for 5 yards (39-J.Reaves).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 85%

    (5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 88-J.Akins to WAS 19 for 8 yards (31-K.Curl).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (4:29) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks to WAS 3 for 10 yards (29-K.Fuller). WAS-96-J.Smith-Williams was injured during the play.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (:27) 24-A.Gibson left guard to HOU 4 for 3 yards (25-D.King; 36-J.Owens).