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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 11

Houston Texans 0 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model