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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 27

Houston Texans 3 – Washington Commanders 23

What Actually Happened

(5:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 88-J.Akins to WAS 19 for 8 yards (31-K.Curl).

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.20 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model