4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 13

Houston Texans 3 – Washington Commanders 23

What Actually Happened

(4:29) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks to WAS 3 for 10 yards (29-K.Fuller). WAS-96-J.Smith-Williams was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.23 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model