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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 79

Houston Texans 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to WAS 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-D.Milne to WAS 42 for 6 yards (46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.13 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 36, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model