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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 66

Houston Texans 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to WAS 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-D.Milne to WAS 18 for no gain (22-W.Redmond).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP