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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 29

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 7-Y.Koo 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.39 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model