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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2022-11-27 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

ATL
47.3%
WAS
52.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Taylor Heinicke (WAS): -0.113 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 20
–
WAS 22
Projected margin: WAS by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

ATL

Jalen Dalton DT Doubtful Toe
Arnold Ebiketie LB Questionable Forearm
Chuma Edoga T Questionable Knee
Feleipe Franks TE Questionable Calf
Caleb Huntley RB Questionable Ankle

WAS

Cole Holcomb LB Out Foot
Dax Milne WR Out Foot
Benjamin St-Juste CB Out Ankle
Logan Thomas TE Questionable Rib
Chase Young DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 13
–
WAS 19

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:12 FG ATL (8:12) 7-Y.Koo 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 3 – WAS 0
  • Q1 03:53 TD WAS (3:53) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 8-B.Robinson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – WAS 6
  • Q2 08:32 TD ATL (8:32) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 85-M.Pruitt for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – WAS 7
  • Q2 01:54 FG WAS (1:54) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. ATL 10 – WAS 10
  • Q3 04:09 TD WAS (4:09) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 87-J.Bates for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – WAS 16
  • Q3 01:22 FG ATL (1:22) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 13 – WAS 16
  • Q4 09:10 FG WAS (9:10) 6-J.Slye 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on ATL-28-M.Ford, Defensive Offside, declined. ATL 13 – WAS 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 79%

    (8:12) 7-Y.Koo 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (2:20) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to WAS 18, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 86-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (15:00) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to ATL 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (1:54) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 21%

    (:29) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson up the middle to ATL 47 for no gain (93-J.Allen).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 15 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 27%

    (11:55) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to ATL 5, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-39-J.Reaves.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (10:23) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to WAS 40, Center-48-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 53%

    (7:18) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard to ATL 37 for 3 yards (97-G.Jarrett; 3-M.Walker).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 77%

    (1:22) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 82%

    (9:10) 6-J.Slye 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on ATL-28-M.Ford, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to WAS 40, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 86-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:09) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to ATL 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.