Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 76

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Washington Commanders 19

(7:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to WAS 40, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 86-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model