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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 54

Washington Commanders 19 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to ATL 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.33 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP