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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 1

Detroit Lions 7 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.04 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 1, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model