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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Thursday 2022-11-24 · 12:30 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -10.0 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

BUF
59.7%
DET
40.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Jared Goff (DET) +0.115 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.250 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

BUF 25
–
DET 23
Projected margin: BUF by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

BUF

Tremaine Edmunds LB Out Groin
Gregory Rousseau DE Out Ankle
A.J. Epenesa DE Doubtful Ankle
Mitch Morse C Questionable Elbow

DET

Evan Brown G Out Ankle
Charles Harris DE Out Groin
Jonah Jackson G Out Concussion
Jeff Okudah CB Out Concussion
Josh Paschal DE Out Knee
Josh Reynolds WR Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 28
–
DET 25

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:47 TD DET (6:47) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 02:04 TD BUF (2:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 6-I.McKenzie for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – DET 7
  • Q2 08:00 TD BUF (8:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen to DET 8 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at DET 8. 17-J.Allen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – DET 7
  • Q2 01:55 TD DET (1:55) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 14 – DET 13
  • Q2 00:05 FG BUF (:05) 2-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 17 – DET 14
  • Q3 09:11 SAF BUF (9:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked in End Zone for -3 yards, SAFETY (91-E.Oliver). BUF 19 – DET 14
  • Q4 13:52 TD DET (13:52) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 4-D.Chark for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 19 – DET 20
  • Q4 02:44 TD BUF (2:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 25 – DET 22
  • Q4 00:28 FG DET (:28) 17-M.Badgley 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. BUF 25 – DET 25
  • Q4 00:07 FG BUF (:07) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 28 – DET 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:15) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to BUF 19, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-57-A.Pittman.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:14) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to DET 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-K.Raymond to DET 35 for 13 yards (85-Q.Morris). FUMBLES (85-Q.Morris), recovered by DET-59-J.Houston at DET 39.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:57) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle to DET 35 for 2 yards (92-D.Jones; 21-J.Poyer).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (1:55) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 18 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 84%

    (:05) 2-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 15 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:53) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to DET 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) 17-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:12) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to DET 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-K.Raymond to BUF 35 for 41 yards (41-R.Gilliam).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%

    (10:41) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to DET 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:07) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 37%

    (:45) 14-A.St. Brown right end pushed ob at BUF 42 for 7 yards (21-J.Poyer).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 75%

    (:28) 17-M.Badgley 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.