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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 78

Buffalo Bills 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to DET 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-K.Raymond to DET 35 for 13 yards (85-Q.Morris). FUMBLES (85-Q.Morris), recovered by DET-59-J.Houston at DET 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.01 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 35, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP