Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 19 – Detroit Lions 14

(6:53) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to DET 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.28 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model