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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 11

Detroit Lions 14 – Buffalo Bills 19

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 17-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model