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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 19 – Detroit Lions 22

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to DET 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.98 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 53, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model