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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 33

Detroit Lions 22 – Buffalo Bills 25

What Actually Happened

(:28) 17-M.Badgley 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +1.96 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model