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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 73

Chicago Bears 10 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 16-T.Gill punts 51 yards to NYJ 22, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.09 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 31, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP