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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
@
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2022-11-27 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread 8.5 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

CHI
42.3%
NYJ
57.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ defense: -0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.129 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Trevor Siemian (CHI): -0.052 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CHI starting Trevor Siemian in place of Justin Fields)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 20
–
NYJ 23
Projected margin: NYJ by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CHI

Jaquan Brisker S Out Concussion
Kyler Gordon CB Out Concussion
Sterling Weatherford LB Out Concussion
Justin Fields QB Questionable left Shoulder

NYJ

Sheldon Rankins DT Out Elbow
Kenny Yeboah TE Doubtful Calf
Duane Brown T Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 10
–
NYJ 31

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:17 TD NYJ (10:17) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short right to 17-G.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-22-K.Vildor, Defensive Holding, declined. CHI 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 06:02 FG CHI (6:02) 2-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 3 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 14:24 TD CHI (14:24) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short middle to 13-B.Pringle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 05:09 TD NYJ (5:09) 5-M.White pass deep left to 17-G.Wilson for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – NYJ 13
  • Q2 00:17 FG NYJ (:17) 6-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. CHI 10 – NYJ 17
  • Q3 06:41 TD NYJ (6:41) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep left to 8-E.Moore for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – NYJ 23
  • Q3 02:36 TD NYJ (2:36) 25-T.Johnson left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – NYJ 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (6:02) 2-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:22) 7-B.Mann punts 62 yards to CHI 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at CHI 29 for 12 yards (55-C.Surratt).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 18
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%

    (9:25) (Field Goal formation) 7-B.Mann to CHI 26 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CHI 26. 7-B.Mann pass incomplete short right [36-D.Houston-Carson].

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:19) 16-T.Gill punts 51 yards to NYJ 22, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:49) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to NYJ 11, Center-48-P.Scales. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 27 for 16 yards (12-V.Jones; 57-J.Sanborn).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 55%

    (:17) 6-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:28) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to NYJ 37, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:59) 7-B.Mann punts 56 yards to CHI 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:10) 16-T.Gill punts 61 yards to NYJ 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 47 for 22 yards (44-M.Adams).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:27) 16-T.Gill to CHI 30 for -14 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CHI 31. 16-T.Gill punts 35 yards to NYJ 21, downed by CHI-45-J.Thomas.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (:11) 32-D.Montgomery left end to CHI 41 for 7 yards (97-N.Shepherd; 29-L.Joyner).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 82%

    (11:08) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Claypool (29-L.Joyner).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 66%

    (8:09) 6-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 29%

    (6:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-D.Evans left tackle to NYJ 43 for 6 yards (56-Qu.Williams).