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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 86

Chicago Bears 10 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 16-T.Gill punts 61 yards to NYJ 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 47 for 22 yards (44-M.Adams).

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 86, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 44, worth -2.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model