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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 66

Chicago Bears 10 – New York Jets 31

What Actually Happened

(:11) 32-D.Montgomery left end to CHI 41 for 7 yards (97-N.Shepherd; 29-L.Joyner).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.76 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model